Showing posts with label fun with math. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fun with math. Show all posts

Sunday, March 20, 2011

fire bucky gleason, 2011 edition

I know it's been a while, and maybe it's because the Sabres lost in pretty spectacularly awful style tonight and I needed something to lighten the mood, but I figure we were long overdue to demonstrate, once again, why Bucky Gleason needs to be fired.

A lot's happened in the last many months where we've gone dormant. But, much like death and taxes, if there is one thing that can be reliably counted on it's Bucky Gleason belaboring the same damn tired narrative. Over and over.

Last week, it was Tim Kennedy's turn. Again.

Some important facts to keep in mind: the Sabres offered Tim Kennedy a one-year deal worth between $800,000-$900,000. Questions remain as to whether it was one-way or two-way. Kennedy went to arbitration, and the arbitrator awarded Kennedy a million dollar deal. The Sabres deemed that too much money and bought him out. As a result, the Sabres took a $333,333.33 cap hit this year, and paid Kennedy $166,666.67 both this year and next. Kennedy signed with the Rangers for $550,000 (a/k/a "the league minimum") and promptly failed to make it out of training camp. Now, he and his agent again insisted on a one-way deal, meaning he'd have to go through re-entry waivers. Instead, the Rangers ultimately traded Kennedy to the Panthers. Or, more accurately, the Hartford AHL team traded Kennedy to Rochester. Now, I think we all know who gets the blame...

Tim Kennedy made his season debut last week, returning to the NHL with the Florida Panthers after a seven-month exile that included five teams, three organizations and an equipment bag full of heartache. Yes, hockey can be a cold, unsentimental business riddled with cruel and unusual punishment.

That's right. It wasn't until March that Tim Kennedy finally made it back to the NHL. For the Panthers. Who are playing out the string. Because they really stink. I mean really.

Key word: business.

I'll give you one guess, and only one guess, as to who in this "business" is allowed to act like businesspersons.

The South Buffalo native earned a Ph.D in hockey business -- and monkey business -- plaschke-nanigans tag, and it's only the second full paragraph after being thrown on his keister by the Sabres last summer. He woke up from the nightmare in the AHL, where he became a prisoner of his ability, his $550,000 contract with the Rangers and the NHL's waiver rules.

Not really a prisoner of his ability. If his ability warranted it, Kennedy would never have left the NHL.

"I could be doing something else with less stress," Kennedy joked last week by telephone from South Florida. "I get paid to do something I love. I've wanted this for my whole life. If you can work through the adversity, you'll be so much better for it. Things could be much worse. There are people out there who are having a hard time getting jobs. I'm playing hockey. For people like me to [complain] is just stupid."

Pretty sensible approach if you ask me. Especially because, as it turns out, he's not particularly good at the game of hockey. So, getting paid to do it is a pretty sweet deal for him.

To review, Kennedy had 10 goals and 26 points last season with the Sabres, he played in 78 games, a stat curiously left out evolved into a dependable two-way player "two-way player" is code for "not really good at playing hockey, but still pretty good at getting in the way of other players who are" and was among their better forwards in the first round of the postseason against Boston. I would also like to point out, thanks in part to Kennedy's stellar "two-way" play, the Sabres blew leads in three of the four playoff games they lost, more than once blowing a two goal lead He was awarded $1 million in arbitration last summer after negotiations broke down. Rather than accept the contract, the Sabres became the first team in history to buy out a player and waive him after arbitration.

"Negotiations broke down" here is code for "a player and his agent figured they had their negotiating counterpart cornered because everybody knew Kennedy would get a mil in arbitration so they insisted on things like a one-way deal."

Kennedy, 24, could have, and perhaps should have, accepted less money and avoided arbitration. But I'll go to my grave -- don't get any ideas -- believing the move by the former regime was about politics and power, not hockey, and played a role in the Sabres' slow start this season. Forget about his hometown roots. They lost a good player who could have helped this season and beyond.

Prove this. Kennedy may have been a developing player with some potential, but 26 points in 78 games does not qualify as "good." Some rumors indicated that Kennedy was waived to make room for Nathan Gerbe. Who, skating on the same crappy checking line Kennedy drew, in 54 games has 11 goals and 24 points. Gerbe's deal is also cheap. Or perhaps Kennedy was waived to make room for Tyler Ennis. Who has 19 goals and 45 points in 72 games. Either way, this move by the "former regime" seems to be pretty smart as it relates to, you know, "hockey."

It was precisely the kind of decision that would not be made under new owner Terry Pegula.

Prove this.

The buyout ultimately will cost the Sabres more money, too. They're paying Kennedy $166,666 this season and next, plus the salary of the player who replaced him on the roster. No matter how it's sliced, it will exceed $1 million per season.

Actually, Kennedy's waiver means Cody McCormick, who was also "one of Buffalo's better forwards in the playoff series against Boston," is playing full-time in the NHL this year. His contract is listed on capgeek as $500,000. So, you know, his deal and Kennedy's payment is $666,666 and costs only $833,333 on the salary cap. That's less than a million. It's worth mentioning that McCormick is 8-11-19 this year in 71 games, which is not far off Kennedy's pace (.27 PPG to .33, respectively). Is he the specific player who replaced Kennedy? No. No one is. But it looks like the Sabres picked three guys out of four for the their roster. Instead of paying $2.725 million on Kennedy/Ennis/Gerbe, the Sabres are paying less than $2.4 million for Ennis/Gerbe/McCormick/Kennedy buy-out. Fun with math! Also, I wonder if not blowing a full million in guaranteed money to a borderline NHL player played any part in the team's decision to trade for actual surefire NHL player Brad Boyes at the deadline.

"Hockey isn't given; you have to earn it," Kennedy said. "Last year, it was almost a perfect year. I made my hometown team, had a pretty good year, we had a good team, I play in the world championships, come home and have a good summer. Everything was going good. And then, everything just went bad overnight."

This may have actually been said by Kennedy. Or made up by Bucky. Both are equally likely.

Kennedy signed with the Rangers and likely would have spent the season in New York if an injury to Chris Drury occurred one day earlier.

Completely unsubstantiated. And this does not change the fact that Tim Kennedy was still not one of the twenty best skaters at Rangers camp. This includes Chris Drury, who in 23 games this year netted a total of four points. Tim Kennedy was deemed worse than that.

Instead, with teams having their rosters set after training camp, he had cleared waivers. Which also means nobody else wanted to pick his hockey ability as a good player for the LEAGUE MINIMUM. He needed a few weeks to get his head straight, but he rediscovered his game and regained his confidence in AHL Hartford.

He had 12 goals and 42 points in 53 games with Hartford, respectable numbers considering he played through a groin injury. The Rangers feared he would have been claimed on re-entry waivers at half price if they tried to bring him back when injuries piled up during the season. Instead, they promoted players with two-way contracts.


So, let me get this straight. If Tim Kennedy had sucked it up and taken a two-way deal, he would've played in the NHL sooner than March? So, maybe he and his agent blew it by insisting with not one, but two teams that he get a one-way deal? Maybe?

Kennedy was caught in a perfect storm.

"I was just stuck," he said. "It's tough because the Rangers had a lot of guys get hurt this year, and people are asking, 'How come you're not going up?'

Correct answer: "Because I got lousy advice from my agent, gambled on a one-way contract, and lost."

"...It gets old and it gets frustrating. I know what's going on, but [other] people don't know. It's hard to explain to people that I wasn't even an option because of my contract."

Fortunately for Kennedy, the Rangers needed a defenseman near the trade deadline and sent him and a third-round pick to Florida for Bryan McCabe. Kennedy played three games in Rochester and was recalled last week. Any team could have grabbed him for half price, about $50,000, of his prorated contract.


The Rangers decided they needed a rental defenseman more than they needed a superfluous forward with a bad contract. Keep in mind that Kennedy is a restricted free agent. So, the Rangers would've still held a significant advantage in terms of negotiating this offseason with such a talented hockey player that can help this season and beyond.

This time, the rules worked to his advantage. Kennedy would not have been able to play for another team this season because it was past the deadline for freezing rosters. He passed through re-entry waivers and played 14 1/2 minutes in the Panthers' 3-2 win over his neighbor, Patrick Kane, and the Blackhawks last week.

This lovely little love letter was published on March 13. That means as of its publication, Tim Kennedy had played three games. In his first, he got 14:30 of ice time, recorded no points and no shots on goal. In his second, he got 10:56 of ice time, again recorded no points and no shots on goal, and this time was actually -1 for the game. His third (and, what turned out to be his final) game for Florida, he got 4:58 of ice time in a game which feature 4:44 of overtime. Again, no points but at least he was credited with a shot on goal. So, in sum, Kennedy's talent at the game of hockey is so misunderstood that he was constantly losing ice time on team with absolutely no playoff aspirations.

Kennedy will be a restricted free agent this summer. The Panthers have only five forwards under contract going into next season. He's intent on showing the Panthers they made the right decision when they acquired him. If it doesn't work out, there's no sense complaining. Nobody will listen.

From the sounds of it, it would seem that if Kennedy wants to sign an NHL contract this summer, he should possibly consider a two-way deal. I doubt an arbitrator is going to look favorably on 30:24 of total NHL ice time resulting in one solitary shot on goal.

"Hockey isn't all about teams being happy to have you," Kennedy said. "It's all about the business. It's about the money. If you're not in a team's plans, you're not in a team's plans. They're not going to do anything to help you. Last year, everything was so good, but you see the other side of it real quick. I saw it almost the whole year."

Tear.

Look, I don't really have anything against Tim Kennedy. He did alright last year, and then misplayed his hand. The Sabres were forced with the options of buying him out, or paying him a $1 million, one-way deal that nobody else in the league wanted. Not even Glen Sather, and Glen Sather gives everybody money. So, maybe we should stop slamming the "former regime" for making a "political" decision to not waste resources on a player that happens to be only OK at hockey simply because, I don't know, he's from South Buffalo.

Friday, May 14, 2010

fire bucky gleason, premature and incorrect edition

I know it's been a while since we've shredded Bucky. Part of it was because the Sabres struggled in their opening round loss to the Bruins, and even though Bucky and his ilk are still very wrong when it comes to hockey analysis, it was tough to defend the Sabres (even though every game was a one-goal affair except for Buffalo's domination in Game Five and the empty net goal in Game Two to make that difference two). Anyways, after a couple weeks of craziness (Trade Connolly! Trade Stafford! Trade Roy! Trade Pominville! It doesn't matter what we get in return!), it's time to try and get reason to reign again (and what I mean is it's time to try, again, to get reason to reign; reason's never reigned in Buffalo when it comes to the Sabres).

This journalistic masterpiece is, ostensibly, not about the Sabres. Or so you think. Read on, you'll see.

michael.w took care of it first, with my comments in italics because I don't highlight my hair.

The deal didn't make sense at the time because it broke Rule No. 1 in "Tricks of the Trade: GM's Guide for Swapping NHL Players." (this sounds like the lamest and least helpful book ever) It states the following: Never, ever, however long you shall live, unload a franchise player unless A) one is coming back in return or B) you're trying to get fired.

Mike O'Connell broke the rule when he traded Joe Thornton on Nov. 30, 2005, which helps explain why the Bruins sent O'Connell packing after the season. Thornton finished the season with the Sharks as the NHL's leading scorer and most valuable player. The Bruins had the fifth-worst record in the league and missed the playoffs.


At least there is acknowledgment that the Bruins GM was fired. Now before you even ask if the trade really benefited both teams, as the headline suggests, I should inject a fact here. The Bruins missed the playoffs not just in the 2005-2006 season, but also the season that followed. In some parts, missing the playoffs two seasons in a row is a mortal sin, and the team's GM sucks.

[Ed's Note: Actually, we should envy the Bruins. They fire their GM after missing the playoffs only once. Also, maybe Mike O'Connell was trying to get fired. You ever think of that, smart guy?]

Thornton was everything the Sharks needed and more over the past five regular seasons, averaging 102 points if you include 23 games he played for the Bruins before making his way to San Jose. He led the league in assists three times and finished with no worse than 86 points in any season during that span.

He also led the league in being tagged with the cliche "can't win in the playoffs."

Boston received Marco Sturm, Brad Stuart and Wayne Primeau in return. The last two were wheeled the following season to Calgary for Andrew Ference and Chuck Kobasew. Sturm has just two playoff goals to show for five years in Boston. Kobasew is gone.

It was a GM not involved in the Thornton deal that made those moves, by the way.

[Ed's Note: Also, all three players were on the roster at the beginning of the 2006-07 season. This is important to note, because during the 2006 offseason, Boston signed Zdeno Chara. So, basically, the three guys that balanced out Thornton were still on the roster when Chara signed.]

So, the Sharks won the deal?

Yes. San Jose has made the playoffs in each of the seasons that Joe Thornton has been on the team. The Bruins have not made the playoffs in each of the seasons since the trade.

Thornton was among the NHL's great players between October and April, one of the great failures in April and May. He had six playoff goals in five postseasons with the Bruins, including 0-0-0, minus-6 over his final seven playoff games for Boston.

Thanks for joining the "Thornton Can't Win in the Playoffs Parade"

Jumbo Joe (Please stop with the nicknames! I am begging. Or at least get it right. He is often referred to as "Big Joe") was pocketing $6.6 million when the swap was completed. He's making $7.2 million now after giving San Jose a hometown discount. He gave them six goals over 41 playoff games in four seasons for a Sharks team that was terrific in the regular season, terrible in the postseason, a reflection of him.

Of course, just a reflection of Thornton. He is the Sharks only player.

[Ed's Note: Much like Tim Connolly, Joe Thornton should use his leadership powers for good and not evil. There were not any other San Jose Sharks capable of offering any kind of compass during the playoffs. They could only turn to Thornton, who so willingly led them off a cliff every time.

Also, shenanigans. Here are Joe Thornton's stat lines from the playoffs for the Sharks...

2005-06: 2-7-9 in 11 games
2006-07: 1-10-11 in 11 games
2007-08: 2-8-10 in 13 games
2008-09: 1-4-5 in 6 games
2009-10 (so far): 3-8-11 in 11 games

So, yes, you are correct by saying that, until this year, he only scored six playoff goals for the Sharks. Which, at first blush, looks like it sucks. But in those 41 playoff games, Thornton happened to have 35 points. Which does not suck. It's not his regular season point per game average, but .85 is nothing to sneeze at. Plus, Thornton is not a goal scorer. His regular season PPG is 1.01, but GPG is .31. His playoff GPG for the Sharks is .17 (or .15 not including this year). So his goal scoring did drop off, significantly (about half). But his PPG is still comparable, bearing in mind these sample sizes aren't huge.

Finally, to pick a random point for comparison, Chris Drury's playoff point per game average over that same span? .76. Joe Thornton is a huge choking bastard, Chris Drury is mega-clutch.]


Boston used the cap space created in the Thornton trade to sign defenseman Zdeno Chara, an eventual Norris Trophy winner.

And missed the playoffs the season after they signed him.

[Ed's Note: Prove this. Sturm, Stuart, and Primeau had an aggregate cap hit (according to nhlscap.com) in 2005-06 of $5.325 million. Thornton's cap hit was $6.67 million (rounded up). So Boston saved about $1.35 million in the deal. Chara's cap hit is $7.5 million. Where the hell did the rest of the cap space come from?

Also, in light of the statistics and cap numbers I've created the "fun with math" tag.]


The Bruins cleared more room to sign Marc Savard, who has averaged more than a point per game since he arrived. The Bruins had the NHL's best record last season.

And this has exactly what to do with the Thornton deal?

OK, so the Bruins won the deal?

No. As stated above, for two straight seasons without "Big Joe," Boston did not make the playoffs. While the Sharks, with him, always did.

Thornton's absence led to the Bruins' misery in 2005-06, but also to fifth overall pick Phil Kessel. He had a team-high 36 goals last season, plus 11 points in 11 playoff games before a second-round knockout.

Soooooooo...... the plan was to trade Thornton, which would necessarily mean the Bruins would suck and therefore they could draft Kessel? Well, at least Kessel is still an instrumental member of the elite Bruins teams.

He was seeking more than $5 million per season last summer, which would have thrown off payroll. GM Peter Chiarelli shipped Kessel to Toronto for two first-round picks in a bold move that was roundly criticized because he unloaded a goal scorer without getting one in return.

Oh.

But now the Bruins own the second pick overall and are certain to land a talented forward in Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin.

So rely on Toronto sucking. OK, actually not a bad plan. Draft a young player, who may or may not be good. In any event, we now have gotten to a point in Bruin history about 17 steps removed from the Thornton trade. We are basically into one of those ridiculous law school exam questions about causation. Man gets hit by car. Walks away with a sprained ankle. Ankle is further sprained when the man plays softball. He goes to the hospital for treatment and dies because an infected syringe caused a fatal staph infection. Is the driver of the car responsible for the man's death?

[Ed's Note: The Bruins netted Kessel not as a direct result of the Thornton trade. The Bruins sucked in part because Thornton was gone, but Boston didn't receive the fifth pick they used on Kessel from San Jose. Phil Kessel actually has almost nothing to do with Joe Thornton. It'd be like saying Edmonton gets to draft #1 overall right now as a direct result of Buffalo resigning Thomas Vanek. So, to Edmonton Thomas Vanek = Hall or Seguin. Doesn't quite work (although that actually makes MORE sense than Thornton becoming Kessel becoming Hall or Seguin).]

Thornton remained largely invisible in big games, vanishing in the first round against Colorado with no goals and a minus-3 rating. He vacated the perimeter in the second round, showed some vigor and had three goals and eight points in five games while dominating Detroit.

What? San Jose won both series. Who cares?

San Jose has reached the conference finals. Boston can reach the conference finals with a win tonight. Which team ended up better in the Thornton deal remains open to debate, but both had the gumption to build upon a significant move in an effort to win the Stanley Cup.

Actually, it is not open to debate. Thornton yet again is a key cog in the San Jose Sharks top rated team. The Bruins have retained one of the role players who came back in the trade and a new GM made about half a dozen unrelated moves to build the Bruins that we see today.

[Ed's Note: The beauty of not firing off cannons too early... both Boston and San Jose have had their playoff struggles of late. But San Jose has never yielded a 3-0 series lead. Thornton replacement (because of ALL that cap space Boston got) Zdeno Chara has.]

Here's the deal with the Sabres: Tim Connolly, Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek, Jochen Hecht, Jason Pominville, Paul Gaustad, Henrik Tallinder, Toni Lydman, Adam Mair and Ryan Miller remained after Thornton was traded.

Right. None of whom, with the possible exception of Miller, come even close to being on the level of Joe Thornton. Joe Thornton is an elite NHL talent. So is Miller. All of the other players listed are no where close to Joe Thornton.

Daniel Briere, Chris Drury, Maxim Afinogenov, Brian Campbell, Ales Kotalik and J.P. Dumont departed. The return: Tyler Ennis, taken with a pick they obtained for Campbell.

How does that make sense?


It should be noted that Briere, Drury, and Dumont were all obtained by the Sabres via trades that the Sabres clearly won, with the exception of Drury. Briere was obtained for Chris Gratton. Dumont was acquired ALONG WITH Doug Gilmour for Michal Grosek. Drury was obtained for Rhett Warrener. That one was a wash.

[Ed's Note: This is so nonsensical I can't even handle it. Free agency decisions happen. The premise of this column is that bold moves need to be taken. Which suggests that we should have traded Briere or Drury in 2007. Don't get me started on Max/Dumont again. I've been down that road before. Kotalik does not bear any inclusion here whatsoever. The premise of this last Sabres kiss off is faulty. Boston traded Thornton, and have three players on their team now as a result. Boston has won two playoff series (one against Buffalo) in the five seasons including the Thornton trade, and since. Buffalo has won four series in the time, in as many playoff appearances. So, perhaps we shouldn't be worshipping the genius of Mike O'Connell and Peter Chiarelli. Because, in some ways, Mike O'Connell + Peter Chiarelli = 1/2 Darcy Regier.]