Monday, March 29, 2010

fire bucky gleason, more dumb micro-analysis edition

I really hope Buffalo finally breaks its funk against the Ottawa Senators. In part because I really hate Ottawa, but mostly because I'm sick of hearing everybody harping about how lousy we are when we play Ottawa. By losing 3-21 we get subjected to drivel like this. Unfortunately, when we get to points like Friday night, Bucky gets emboldened.

I'd be lying if I didn't have my own reservations about our recent play against Ottawa. But, at the same time, every team has its foil somewhere. Another team that just gets the bounces, the battles, and the breaks, and figures you out. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are something like 198,753-15 (this is just an estimate based on all the sports journalism I've read since 2001 on the subject) against all non-Miami Dolphins NFL teams. However, in that same span, the same guys are 10-9 against the Dolphins. It happens.

I also take solace in the fact that, playoff-wise, in our last ten games against Ottawa, we are 5-5. Of those ten games, nine (9) (!) were decided by a single solitary goal. Six of those games were settled in overtime (including one in double overtime). That doesn't sound like domination by anybody, it sounds like an exceptionally dead heat where the teams are so evenly matched it comes down to crazy things like getting a bounce or break. Nobody is clearly outworked. I know what you're thinking2, "But, patrick.m3, the Sens are approximately 97-1-18 against Buffalo in the regular season since the lockout." Fine. You are correct, you fatalistic "glass-is-only-a-quarter-full" fan so typical of those in and around Buffalo. The reality is that the NHL regular season is a completely different animal than the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. More on that later.

michael.w got to this first because I had sick kids all weekend. My comments are in italics because I'm better looking.

Patrick Kaleta wasted no time Friday night proving he's capable of dropping more than F- bombs. Our lovable local favorite dropped alternating overhand and uppercut bombs with his left hand on Zack Smith a few minutes into the game before dropping the Ottawa rookie to his knees in a heap.

What the hell does this have to with flaming out in the playoffs?

In what is becoming his post-scrap custom at home, the winger waved his arms on his way to the penalty box in a plea to his neighbors to bring more energy and raise the roof in HSBC Arena. Kaleta should have made an about face and summoned for more from the players sitting on his own bench.

Custom? This is exactly the second time Kaleta has done this. Last week, I twice had a roast beef sandwich for lunch instead of turkey. I guess a roast beef sandwich is now my "custom" sandwich. And why should he have turned to the Sabres bench? Isn't the standard cliche in hockey that fight energizes the team, sans turning and summoning more from the players on his own bench?

"It gives you that extra ounce of energy, that extra boost, and the fans are cheering and the atmosphere picks up. Then, we're ready to go," Kaleta said. "We played pretty well in certain areas, but we could have played a little bit better, a little more fearless and with a little more determination. That fight was trying to get something going."

At this count we are through three paragraphs of Patrick Kaleta masturbation and not a single mention of the Sabres and playoff possibilities.

[Ed's Note: I'd also like to point out that Bucky devoted a full paragraph of quotes attributable to Patrick Kaleta, none of which actually said, you know, anything.]

It clearly wasn't enough, but at least Kaleta gave it a whirl.

I thought he didn't "give it a whirl." Only focusing on the crowd and not the much needed attention that bench required. As an aside, isn't it the job of Lindy Ruff to keep the players on their toes and motivated, not the team agitator?

[Ed's Note: It's not Lindy's fault. Thomas Vanek Vanish doesn't care about the fans, and just loafs through everything. He definitely does NOT park himself in front of the net and get brutally assaulted to score any of his goals. The only players that do care about the fans (and, therefore, the only players who the fans should care about) are Miller, Myers, Kennedy, Kaleta, and (presumably) Grier.]

The Sabres had an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth Friday night, a formality that will take place with a victory tonight over Tampa Bay or at some point soon. They're almost certain to win the division. They have the best goaltender in the league in Ryan Miller.

[Ed's Note: This is Bucky's attempt at persuasive writing... line up everything that goes against what you believe. The Sabres have accumulated so many points their playoff spot, even without clinching, was all but guaranteed. They are "almost certain" to win the division, despite giving Ottawa ten points in the five games they've played so far (and only earning, like, two). They have the "best goaltender in the league", which is actually a gross understatement. Ryan Miller was named tournament MVP at the Olympics. Therefore, he is the best player in the world.]

But is anybody really convinced a contending team is in our midst?

Yes. They have the best goaltender in the league. And I seem to recall that having the best goaltender in the league can often cover the blemishes of a sub par team, particularly come playoff time. And yes, I picked this picture of Hasek because it makes fun of Flyers fans.

[Ed's Note: I should hope people are convinced this team can "contend." I'm not saying we'll win the Cup. That's a longshot, I admit. But name me one "contending" team that has above average goaltending. Washington rotates between Varlamov and Theodore, so hopefully their offense can carry them. Though we saw in 2007 that an electric offense in the regular season don't mean squat come playoff time. Chicago is slumping, and has to rely on Huet. Luongo is slumping. Brodeur is about 97. The Sharks are, well, the Sharks. Pittsburgh will be addressed later. So, yeah, since you asked, I'm convinced. We have a shot. There are better teams out there, but the team that wins the Cup isn't necessarily the best. It's the one that manages 16 wins in the playoffs, however earned.]

Uh, no.

Yes, this man is a professional writer. Only he can come up with literary beauty like the preceding sentence.

[Ed's Note: Persuasive writing at its finest. "You know all those things that contradict the point I'm trying to make? Uh, ignore them." I'm sure Bucky will follow this thesis (which, I might add, we don't get until almost a third of the way through this nonsense) with evidence and argument in support of his main premise.]

And that has been the issue of late, even when the Sabres rattled off four straight victories to get into position to wrap up a playoff spot. They have a good team,

[Ed's Note: I'd just like to remind everyone that Bucky is trying to tell us all that the Sabres suck and have no chance at winning the Cup. So far his primary (by which I mean "only") support here is that 1. the Sabres recently won four games in a row and 2. have a good team.]

but they're not scaring anyone with their mediocre play over the past two months. The Senators certainly aren't worried about them, not after a 4-2 victory for their ninth straight win over the Sabres.

But they're winning. Who cares? Perhaps, seeing their comfortable spot in the standing, the Sabres have either intentionally or unintentionally set everything on cruise control knowing the two month grind of the playoffs is ahead of them.

[Ed's Note: Quite the juxtaposition here. The Sabres have just won four in a row, but are not scaring anyone with their mediocre play. Two things here: first, assuming Bucky is correct, we should be pleased that they're winning games with sheer mediocrity. Imagine what will happen in the playoffs if they don't play mediocre. Second, is that Bucky is not correct. But, he's a person paid to professionally offer insight and commentary on sports (particularly hockey). He can't be wrong.]

The Sabres had an opportunity to lock up the playoffs against a team that has given them problems, but they treated much of the game like some Tuesday game against Columbus in November.

It was a Friday game against Ottawa in March. Not a game in April, May or June, which actually would be an important game, regardless of opponent.

[Ed's Note: I'd like to point out that a Tuesday game against Columbus in November is worth the exact same amount of points as a Friday game against Ottawa in March. Also, what the hell does the day of the week have to do with anything? Seriously?]

Here's a disturbing stat: since Feb. 1, the Sabres have one regulation victory over a team currently in the playoffs. It was against a San Jose team that was finishing off a road trip and was running for the bus before the Olympics. Otherwise, it has been a string of mostly mediocre play, good fortune and poor opponents.

Nice job adding a thousand prerequisites. February was a month shortened by half because of the Olympic break. Good sample size.

[Ed's Note: Qualify qualify qualify. Let's see, the Sabres are 9-5-1 since the Olympic break. The Sabres beat Boston (a team currently in the playoffs) last night, which was admittedly after this steaming of pile of journalism was published. Four wins came against down and out teams (also known as "teams with absolutely nothing to lose"). Two other wins came against Eastern playoff teams (Philly and Montreal), including an overtime win against the Flyers. You do realize that overtime goals, and therefore overtime wins, count in the playoffs right? Only the Canadiens game was won in a shootout. Of those five losses, three were by one goal (all to teams in the playoffs, or desperate to make the playoffs at the time), plus the "two goal" loss to Ottawa, and a two goal loss to Washington. So, yeah, this reeks of mediocrity. Especially from a team that, once Ottawa (remember them) stumbled out of the break to the tune of 1-7-1, had roughly nothing to play for.]

The problem Friday night wasn't effort alone. It also was execution. They fired 43 shots at Sens goalie Brian Elliott, but most came from the outside until the third period. Jason Pominville made it interesting when he snapped home a wrister from the left circle early in the third period, but that was it.

[Ed's Note: Prove that "most" of the shots came from the outside. Seriously. Prove it. 43 shots is a lot of effing shots. The Sabres put 17 on net in the first period alone. Brian Elliott made some big saves. It happens.]

Thomas Vanek could have tied the game midway through the third, but his slap shot from between the circles on a breakaway rang off the post. Tough luck. Elliott made several big saves for Ottawa. Buffalo dominated most of the final period but ultimately it wasn't enough against a division rival that's behind them in the standings.

WOW! Got a long way before the sports cliches about effort and execution were dusted off. And dammit Thomas Vanek! You suck. In any event, congratulations on being the first NHL player to ever hit the post on a breakaway.

[Ed's Note: Seriously, cut Vanek. Trade him for a bag of pucks. Thanks to Vanek, shooters on breakaways are now 1,098,764/1,098,765 in terms of scoring production. To quote Charlie Conway, "if he was three inches to the left, he would've missed entirely." What a loser.]

If there's a positive they can take from the game Friday, it's that the Senators' win pushed them three points ahead of Montreal for fifth place in the conference, decreasing the chances of Buffalo meeting Ottawa in the first round.

Something we actually agree on. In sports, sometimes a team has another's number, regardless of record. It happens. Better to have Ottawa eliminated by Pittsburgh.

If Buffalo is going to be taken seriously in the postseason, it must figure out a way to get through teams like Ottawa.

Didn't you say immediately before this that they would not have to face Ottawa?

[Ed's Note: Name me another team "like Ottawa." What you want to say is "because we can't beat Ottawa, we suck and can never contend for a Cup." So say that. Now we have to worry about teams "like" Ottawa, even though you don't suggest any team dominates Buffalo like Ottawa does. You know who should be worried? Pittsburgh. The Pens are 0-8-1 against New Jersey and Washington this year, and are likely to meet one (or both) in the playoffs. The Sabres, by comparison, are 3-4 against the Devils and Capitals. Not great, but not winless. But, because we all must kneel at the altar of Crosby, Pens = contender, Sabres = sad pathetic jerks who have no business even suiting up in a playoff game.]

The Sabres have tried passing it off as just one of those strange things in sports. Sorry, but nine straight losses to the same team over two seasons can't be dismissed as some crazy fluke.

It is one of those crazy things in sports. Do you watch sports?

[Ed's Note: To help make sense of this, I'm going to substitute Pittsburgh. "The Penguins have tried passing it off as just one of those strange things in sports. Sorry, but nine straight losses to two top conference teams in the same season can't be dimissed as some crazy fluke."]

The Sabres can look at their record through 73 games and be satisfied, but they're kidding themselves if they think they can make any noise in the postseason in their current state.

Why should they be satisfied? And what current state should we be worried about, the state that had them, just two nights earlier scrap and claw their way to win against a playoff team when they were clearly outplayed? Of course, it is Bucky perhaps he just means the state of New York.

"It's not a fluke. Very rarely is it a fluke," Paul Gaustad said. "It's us committing 60 minutes against these guys. We can't be scared. We have to go after them. They paid attention to details, and we didn't. Enough is enough. We have to beat teams like this to get past any round in the playoffs. We have to be better, and we have to prove it."

Diligent reporter obtains cliched quotes from athlete: Check.

[Ed's Note: A paragraph attributed this time to Paul Gaustad, who, like Patrick Kaleta before him, says basically nothing.]

Lindy Ruff knows darned well the jury is still out on his team, and deep down he has questions of his own about them. Ruff suggested Friday morning that they can beat anybody in the East when they play their game, but he's not really sure. In fact, anybody predicting how the Sabres' will respond in the postseason is merely taking a guess based on old evidence.

The jury (here we go with legal references again) is still out on all of the teams that will make the playoffs. For instance, if the Caps run the table and win it all, they will validate their regular season dominance. If they fall anywhere short of a Cup, they choke. That's how it works in sports. Play the result and look like an expert after the fact. Oh and basing something on evidence, old, new or in between, is the exact opposite of guessing.

[Ed's Note: In light of Bucky's continued legal references, I am creating the legal metaphor tag.]

Vanek played well the last time they were in the postseason, for example, but he was a third-line winger who avoided lines designed specifically to stop him. Same goes for Derek Roy. Tim Connolly played only 24 playoff games in his first nine seasons. Six players on the roster have played none. Drew Stafford played 10 as a rookie.

And Brad Lidge was a perennial playoff choke artist, based on old evidence related guessing. Then, in 2008, he was perfect all through the post-season and led the Phillies to World Series and became "clutch." Then in 2009 he basically stunk again and everyone (playing the result) said they knew he would blow because he did so often in the past. See also Cole Hamels.

[Ed's Note: Alex Rodriguez is instructive here. Pre-2009, A-Rod sucked. He never won a title. He wasn't clutch. He wasn't a True Yankee. He lacked a certain "Jetery" quality. He was overpaid and undertalented, and would never win the big one. Not even for the Yankees. Now? He's a clutch superstars with a Ring. It's all stupid.]

The truth is it comes down to how they play over three periods. They played 58 listless minutes against the Canadiens and pulled out a victory. They've slept through the first period a few times and won. They didn't play well for the first two periods Friday, and they paid a price with a playoff berth waiting.

In the end, they failed to put up a strong enough fight.


And clinched the berth exactly one night after, so who cares?

[Ed's Note: What price did they pay, besides not fulfilling their end of a bizarre grudge match that exists primarily in the minds of local fans and sports media? Ottawa didn't take the division lead (which, I might, they had outright at the beginning of this month, which Bucky says is right in the middle of Buffalo's "mediocre" stretch), and barely even closed the gap. Thanks to two wins since Friday, the Sabres' magic number is 6. Ottawa has all the pressure here, Buffalo has no pressure beyond what they put on themselves because they keep losing to the Senators.]

"We've had enough lessons here over the last month," winger Mike Grier said. "Hopefully, it will start to sink in. We've got two weeks left in the season, and they're an example of what you have to do to win games. You've got to work hard and do all the little things. We didn't do enough of that."

Wasn't Grier's presence providing "leadership" supposed to prevent all of this anyways? Maybe all those sports cliches are BS.

To summarize: the Sabres suck, will be swept in the first round so don't buy tickets and don't watch the playoff games on TV. If you do, you're dumb.

1 - I know Daniel Alfredsson "scored" in the final second to make the official score 4-2. But since the clock read zero, I figure the goal doesn't count. If it did, there would have to be a faceoff. Not that it matters, it doesn't change the outcome, but it still seems stupid to give Alfie a free stat.

2 - I've demonstrated this before, don't be alarmed.

3 - Thank you for having the courtesy of using my pseudonym.

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